Marist Poll Shows Cuomo Holds Strong Lead in NYC Democratic Primary

A Marist Poll released on Wednesday, May 14th, shows Andrew Cuomo holding a commanding lead in the race for New York City mayor, positioning him well ahead of his closest rival, Zohran Mamdani, and other Democratic contenders. Cuomo is the first choice for 37% of likely Democratic primary voters, a figure that climbs to 44% when undecided respondents are excluded from the ranked-choice voting projections.

In the simulated ranked choice process, Cuomo reached the majority threshold in the fifth round, securing 53% of the vote. Mamdani, a Queens Assemblymember, trails at 29% in the final count, with NYC Comptroller Brad Lander capturing 18%. Other candidates, including Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, State Senators Zellnor Myrie, Scott Stringer, and Jessica Ramos trail behind the top contenders with lower levels of support.

The poll, conducted from May 1st–May 8th among 3,383 likely Democratic voters, shows Cuomo leading across multiple age groups, races, and boroughs. Nearly half of voters aged 45 and older back Cuomo, a key advantage in a primary where older voters typically turn out at higher rates. Mamdani, meanwhile, holds a 38% edge among voters under 45.

Among racial and ethnic groups, Cuomo commands strong support from 50% of Black voters, significantly ahead of Mamdani’s 8%. Adrienne Adams follows with 14%, while Brad Lander and Scott Stringer each receive 2%, Zellnor Myrie 4%, and Jessica Ramos has no reported support among Black voters. Cuomo also leads among Latino voters, securing 41%, more than double Mamdani’s 20%. Adrienne Adams and Brad Lander each garnered 6%, Scott Stringer 5%, Zellnor Myrie 1%, and Jessica Ramos 4%. This wide gap underscores Cuomo’s dominant position within these key communities, compared to the lower support for his rivals.

Citywide, Cuomo performs strongest in the Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island, with roughly half of likely Democratic voters in each borough selecting him as their top choice. In Manhattan, he holds a narrower lead at 32%, while he and Mamdani are tied at 25% each in Brooklyn.

Despite the ranked choice format potentially giving others a path forward, Cuomo’s consistent lead across rounds has placed him in a dominant position as early voting approaches on June 14. With just weeks remaining before the primary, the latest polling underscores Cuomo’s firm grip on the race and his opponents’ challenges in shifting voter dynamics.