France Begins Withdrawing Troops From Chad, the Future of The Sahel Hangs in the Balance

The Guardian has reported that the French military officially began its withdrawal from Chad on Tuesday, less than two weeks after the government announced it would be terminating its defense agreement with France.

The withdrawal of French forces from Chad coincides with growing resentment towards France’s presence across the Sahel. France’s military operations in the region have faced mounting criticism for failing to stem the violence caused by armed insurgent groups. For Chad, the termination of the agreement underscores the government’s effort to assert its sovereignty and reorient its foreign partnerships.

However, while other countries have increasingly leaned on Russia for support, Chad’s next steps remain less clear. In neighboring countries like Niger and the Central African Republic, the shift away from France has been accompanied by overt moves toward Russian alliances. These countries have invited the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization tied to the Kremlin, to replace French forces and provide security assistance.

Chad, however, has taken a more cautious approach. While the country’s transitional leader, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, has engaged diplomatically with Russia, there has so far been no formal invitation for Russian military personnel—a decision that sets Chad apart in the current landscape.

As Chad navigates this geopolitical realignment, its neighbor Sudan offers a case study of Russia’s growing influence in the region. A recent New York Times report detailed the Wagner Group’s extensive involvement in Sudan’s gold industry. Operating through its subsidiary, Meroe Gold, Wagner has used Sudanese gold to fund its global operations, including its activities in Ukraine. The group has also reportedly supplied weapons to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), exacerbating the country’s ongoing civil war.

Sudan is currently engulfed in a devastating civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted in April 2023. The conflict has led to over 5 million people being displaced and thousands of civilian casualties. Essential infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, is nonexistent, and both warring factions have been accused of committing war crimes. Despite international mediation attempts, the situation remains dire, with Sudan facing a severe humanitarian crisis.

Sudan’s civil war poses a direct threat to regional security and thus has serious implications for Chad, which has already absorbed thousands of refugees fleeing the conflict and risks further destabilization if the crisis escalates. That being said, Chad’s potential engagement with Russia raises questions as to how far it might go in courting Moscow’s influence. Allowing Russian troops to enter Chad could potentially open a supply corridor for the RSF through Sudan’s western border, which would undoubtedly tip the scales of the conflict in the rebel group’s favor.

Whether Chad maintains its deliberate approach or embraces a more direct partnership with Russia will reverberate far beyond its borders, shaping the future of both the Sahel and Central Africa as a whole.